A mere two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the England international swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
